1Russia and the USA over Iraq: attitudes and decision-makingAnna SmirnovaYaroslavl State UniversityPrepared for presentation at the International Student Forum“Global Challenges: Security, Environment and Terrorism in the 21 st Century“, April 21-24 , 2004Yaroslavl, Russia2Representation of a problem as a factor of propensity of states for cooperation in the process of international problem-solvingParticipationoftheUSAandRussiainresolutionofIraqicrisisduringtheperiodof2002-2003Issuesunderconsideration:•Howitispossible,thattheUSAandRussia,whichfightasalliesagainstinternationalterrorisminAfghanistan,didnotmanagetofurthertheircooperation?•Whatfactorsinfluencethepropensityofstatesforcooperationintheprocessofinternationalproblem-solving?3Common external threat as a factor of cooperationExistenceofcommonexternalthreatisanecessarybutnotsufficientconditionfortheemergenceofcooperation.Politicalleadersofstatesshouldhavethesharedunderstandingoftheproblemunderresolution.4Representation of a problem and foreign policy decision-makingCognitiveapproachtounderstandingofthefunctioningofinternationalorganizations:theprocessofrepresentationofaproblemunderliestheinteractionofstatesinthecourseofinternationalproblem-solving.Organizationoriginatesfromthelackofconvergenceofaimsandimages,constructedbyitsmember-states.Themainfunctionoforganizationconsistsinreconciliationofdifferentopinions,searchforacceptabletreatmentoftheproblemissue.5Two main characteristics of cooperative relationships1)Convergenceofrepresentationsofaprobleminmindsofpoliticalleadersofdifferentstates2)Mutualadjustmentofrepresentationsofaprobleminaccordancewiththefeed-back,whichpoliticalleadersreceivefromtheirpartners.Hypothesis:resolutionofIraqicrisisin2002-2003ischaracterizedbythedivergenceoftheproblemrepresentationsinthemindsofRussianandAmericandecision-makersandthereluctanceoftheRussianandtheUSpresidentstoadjusttheirrepresentationstakingintoconsiderationthefeed-backthatisreceivedfromtheotherinternationalactors.6Image of state as factor of representation of a problem in minds of political leadersSelf-imageconsistsofthreecomponents:identity,statusandrole.Self-imagehelpstobuildthehierarchyofalternativesthroughaccentuationofeitheridentification,statusorrolecomponentthatiscategorizedbyanactorasthemostcompletelyreflectingthepeculiaritiesoftheexistingsituationEachofthecomponentsoftheself-imageisassociatedwiththepositive,negativeorambivalentemotionsRepresentationoftheoptionsfromthepointofviewofgainsorlosses,associatedwiththeproblem.7Cognitive and affective characteristics of self-images of the USA and Russia, constructed by the president G.W. Bush and V.V. Putin in the period of Iraqi crisis in 2002-2003Frequencyofoccurrenceofidentity,statusandrolestatementsinspeechesofthepresidentoftheUSAG.W.BushandthepresidentofRussiaV.V.PutinintheperiodsofIraqicrisisin2002-2003Frequencyofpositive,negativeandambivalentstatementsinspeechesoftheofthepresidentoftheUSAG.W.BushandthepresidentofRussiaV.V.PutinintheperiodofIraqicrisisin2002-2003,6,5,4,3,2,10,0G.W. BushV.V. PutinIdentityStatusRole,8,6,4,20,0G.W.BushV.V. PutinPositiveNegativeAmbivalent8Role statements in speeches of the president of Russia V.V. Putin and the president of the USA G.W. Bush in the period of Iraqi crisis in 2002-2003I.RolesofRussia:1)guaranteeingtheworkofinternationalinspectors–18,18%ofstatements;2)disarmamentofIraq-14,55%ofstatements;3)solutionofhumanitarianproblemsofpeopleofIraq-10,91%ofstatements;4)WritingoffdebtsofIraq-7,27%ofstatements.II. Principles of realization of roles: 1)fulfillmentofresolution,adoptedbytheSecurityCounciloftheUNO–34,55%ofstatements;2)usageofpolitico-diplomaticmethods-9,87%;3)collectiveactionsofRussiaanditspartnersandallies,includingtheUSAandothermembersofG-8-8,64%ofstatements.I. Roles of the USA:1)resolutionofIraqiproblem-62,96%ofstatements:•tooverthrowtheregimeofSaddamHussein-38,23%;•topreventtheregimeofS.fromdevelopmentofweaponsofmassdestruction–11,76%ofstatements.2)fightagainstinternationalterrorism-8,33%ofstatements;3)protectionofinternationalsecurity-4,63%ofstatements;4)guaranteeingsecurityoftheUSA-2,78%ofstatements.II. Principles of realization of roles:1) collective actions of the USA and their allies -11,29%of statements;2)strategyofpreventiveactions-9,68%ofstatements;3)fulfillmentofresolution,adoptedbytheSecurityCounciloftheUNO-8,06%ofstatements.9Factors which determine the choice of the role priorities of the USA in the period of Iraqi crisis in 2002-2003Identity:1)freedom-20,83%ofidentitystatements;2)eventsofSeptember11,2001-8,69%ofstatements;4)historyoftheWorldWarII-5,2%ofstatements;5)peace-4,17%ofstatements;6)hope-4,17%ofstatements;7)opportunities-2,08%ofstatements.Status: perception of threats and opportunities:1)regimeofSaddamHusseinposesthreattotheUSA-55,56%ofstatements;2)terrorism-18,06%ofstatements;3)theUSAseesitsvulnerability-12,5%ofstatements;4)opportunities:theregimeofSaddamHusseinisoverthrown,campaigninIraqisavictoryinthefightagainstterrorism–12,5%ofstatements.Roles10Factors which determine the choice of the role priorities of Russia in the period of Iraqi crisis in 2002-2003Status: principles of building of international relations:1)multipolarity -23,81% of statements;2) collective actions and decisions -9,52%of statements;3)inadmissibility of the beginning of the age of “new colonialism” –9,52% of statements.Status:perception of threats1)threatofavailabilityofweaponsofmassdestructioninIraq/concernaboutSaddamHussein'slinkstointernationalterroristgroups-20%ofstatements;2)militaryoperationconductedbythealliedforcesinIraqfraughtwithdisintegrationoftheexistingsystemofinternationalrelations-16%ofstatements;3)attemptstounifytheworld–16%ofstatements.Roles11Status component of self-image of Russia and the USA in the period of Iraqi crisis in 2002-2003:perception of relationships with other international actors (as it is presented in speeches of the president of Russia V.V. Putin and the president of the USA G.W. Bush)Russia:1)Russian-Americanrelationships–29,82%ofstatements;1)relationshipsbetweenRussiaandmember-statesoftheCoalition-21,05%ofstatements;3)Russian-Iraqirelationships-10,53%ofstatements.TheUSA:1)theUSAactsinIraqwithalliesattheirside-56,52%ofstatements;2)theUSAhasenemiesandopponents-13,04%ofstatements;3)theUSAisfriendofIraqipeople/willingnesstocooperatewithnewIraqigovernment-13,04%ofstatement.12Image of the political world constructed by the president of Russia V.V. Putin and the president of the USA G.W. Bush (Indices were calculated in accordance with the methodic VICS, St. Walker) V.V. PutinP-1:Natureofpoliticalworld-0,4-cooperative;P-2: Realization of political values –0,41 –optimistic;P-3:Politicalfuture–0,52–predictabilityisabovetheaverageP-5: Role of chance –0,65 –high role of chanceG.W. BushP-1: Nature of political world –(-0,14) –conflictual;P-2: Realization of political values –(-0,16) –pessimistic;P-3:Politicalfuture:0,12–lowpredictabilityP-5: Role of chance –0,87 –high role of chance______________________________________Theindices,presentedabove,describetheso-calledphilosophicalbeliefsofthepresidentofRussiaV.V.PutinandthepresidentoftheUSAG.W.Bushaboutthenatureofpoliticalworld.ThetestofhypothesisabouttheexistenceofsignificantdifferencesintheindexesP-1,P-2,P-3andP-5helpsustocometoconclusionaboutexistenceofsubstantialchangesinbeliefsoftwopresidents.13Conclusions:1)IntheperiodofIraqicrisisin2002-2003wefixedtheabsenceofthenecessaryfoundationsforcooperationbetweenRussiaandtheUSA,connectedwithabsenceofsharedrepresentationsofIraqiproblemandthelackofwillingnesstocorrecttheirrepresentationsandimages.2)Representationofaprobleminthemindsofpoliticalleadersisimportantfactorofpropensityofstatesforcooperationintheprocessofinternatioalproblem-solving.