World Oil Outlook to 2030

World Oil Outlook to 2030 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head of Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook Series l World Energy Outlook 1998 l World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right l World Energy Outlook – 2000 l World Energy Outlook – 2001 Insights: Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth l World Energy Outlook – 2002 l World Energy Outlook – 2003 Insights: Global Energy Investment Outlook (forthcoming) World Primary Energy Demand 6,000 Oil 5,000 4,000 Mtoe 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1970 Nuclear power Hydro power Non-hydro renewables Natural gas Coal 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Gas grows fastest in absolute terms & non-hydro renewables fastest in % terms, but oil remains the dominant fuel in 2030 World-Oil Demand 140 120 100 mb/d 80 60 40 20 0 2000 OECD 2010 Transition economies 2020 2030 Developing countries Oil demand grows in every region, fastest in the developing countries World Oil Demand by Sector 2000 2030 Industry 16 % Industry 19% Other sectors 16% Other sectors 14% Power generation 10% Transport 55% Power Generation 6% Transport 64% 75 mbd 120 mbd Around three-quarters of the increase in demand for oil will come from the transport sector. World-Oil Production 120 100 80 mb/d 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 OPEC 2000 2010 2020 2030 Non-OPEC Reliance on OPEC oil progressively increases Change in World-Oil Production 20 15 mb/d 10 5 0 -5 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 OPEC Non -OPEC OPEC producers capture most of the increase in oil demand after 2010 Net Oil Trade, 2030 5 16 1 13 1 10 5 6 1 0 3 7 1 3 8 46 2 US and Canada Mexico Brazil Other Latin America European Union Other OECD Europe Russia Other transition economies India Other South Asia Africa Middle East Japan, Australia and New Zealand Korea China Indonesia Other East Asia Net exports Net imports Mb/d The Middle East strengthens its position as the world’s largest oil exporter Oil-Import Dependence 100 net imports as per cent of oil supply 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD South Asia N.America 2000 2010 China East Asia 2030 Asia sees the biggest jump in import dependence, while OECD imports also continue to rise, especially in Europe Proven Natural Gas Reserves 56.7 6.4 7.7 58.5 11.6 14.9 8.2 World total: 164 tcm at 1 January 2001 Ultimate remaining resources (including proven reserves) are an estimated 453 - 527 tcm Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 40,000 35,000 million tonnes of CO2 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 World 1980 OECD 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Transition economies Developing countries World emissions increase by 1.8 % per year to 38 billion tonnes in 2030 – 70% above 2000 levels Implications for the Kyoto Protocol Emission WEO targets for emissions 2010 2010 OECD Annex B countries** Russia Ukraine & Eastern Europe Total 9,662 2,212 1,188 13,062 12,457 1,829 711 14,997 Gap (%) 28.9 -17.3 -40.2 14.8 Gap (Mt CO2) 2,795 -383 -477 1,935 * Difference between target emissions and projected emissions as a percentage of target emissions. Emissions in OECD Annex B countries exceed the 2010 target by 29%, but “hot air” reduces the gap to 15% Non-conventional oil Prospects l In recent years the prospects for a major expansion in NCO production have increased, particularly of: u oil sands u extra-heavy crude (gravity below 100 API) u oil shales l Many of these NCO resources are found in countries outside of the Middle East. l Their development will have significant implications for global oil markets. Non-conventional oil production % NCO Production % of total oil production n o i t c u d o r p l i o l a t o t f o The WEO2002 sees production of NCO jumping to almost 8 mbd by 2030, this is similar to the current production of Saudi Arabia. 01 5 0 03 02 0202 0 102 00 02 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 m b d Constraints to Nonconventional oil production l Production is rising sharply yet some important issues still need to be addressed: uenvironmental usocial utechnological umarketing uinvestment l The commitment of both the private sector and governments will be necessary. l International oil prices: an important factor.