Our Dialogue on Climate Change, Clean Energy and Sustainable Development
Energy and Environment Ministerial London 1 November 2005
Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency
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The Climate Change Challenge
Stabilising the global climate requires bringing greenhouse gas emissions down
Example: emissions should peak no later than 2030 if concentrations are to remain under 550 ppm (already double the pre-industrial level)
Eventually, global emissions must decrease to levels much lower than today’s
Near zero net emissions are required sooner or later if we are to stabilise concentration levels
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We are not on Track
Global CO2 Emissions, 1973-2030
20,000
Source: W EO 2004
16,000
Mt of CO2
12,000
8,000
4,000
0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
O ECD
Transition Econom ies
Developing Countries
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries
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Existing Technologies
Technologies do exist that together have the potential to stem the growth of CO2 emissions But their uptake requires deployment policies that give the right market incentives
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Examples: Measures which can be Taken Now IEA 1-Watt initiative could reduce standby power consumption by about 10GW - about 20 power plants – in OECD alone New IEA publication in early 2006 – Light’s Labours Lost – estimates that more than 30% savings in electricity demand can be achieved if least cost lighting options were adopted
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But this is still not enough…
To achieve a truly long-term sustainable energy system new technologies will be needed for which demonstration and R&D efforts must be scaled up But changes in energy infrastructure take time, thus action is urgent
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Technology Opportunities
No one solution, but some features are clear:
Accelerating energy efficiency improvements can make a difference in the short and long term CCS is a crucial in the medium and long term – needs full scale demonstration Renewables are key for the long-term sustainability – must be cost-effective Nuclear can contribute more - improve technology and wastes handling
Need to pursue a “portfolio” policy approach for technology deployment and R&D
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The Strategic Challenge
Getting Results from our Dialogue The G8 Plan of Action:
Energy Efficiency Clean Fossil Fuel Renewables Technology Collaboration Areas that can make the most difference Relevant to all consuming nations
Dialogue leading to urgent action
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What Will the IEA Do
The Means
A major international programme of analysis, workshops, sharing knowledge and experience Partnership with the Wold Bank and IFIs
The End
Energy scenarios and strategies for a clean energy future Best practice for policy and regulation
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We Want to Work with
Governments of developing as well as developed countries Existing international initiatives The IEA’s own cooperation network
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Final Word
The Dialogue and the Gleneagles PoA provide an important opportunity for us to work together The IEA is committed to work with all of you to take the Dialogue forward and to identify pathways towards lower-carbon energy systems while promoting economic growth and energy security
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